Saturday, October 1, 2016

News Flash - 01/10/16

Norway Registrations In October:

Tesla Model X - 600 units;

BMW i3 - 500;

Kia Soul EV - 340.


Friday, September 30, 2016

World Top 10 August 2016

Image result for 2016 Tesla Model S vs Nissan Leaf
Tesla Model S is charging  into the Leadership

Models - 2015 All Over Again?

The global EV market continues to grow at rapid pace, with some 63.000 units delivered in August, representing a 66% growth YoY, with YTD sales now up 55%, we are headed for a total sales number of around 800.000 units.

In the models ranking, the Best Seller of the Month was again the Tesla Model S, thanks to 4.715 units, this was the third consecutive month that the sleek Sports Sedan won the Monthly Best Seller trophy, so this might turn out to be the same story as last year, with the Nissan Leaf leading the ranking during most of the year and then the Model S stealing it from the Japanese hatch in the final months.

Looking at the rest of the YTD ranking, the Renault Zoe stumbled to #8, because of the seasonal drop (Vacances time), while the #4 Outlander PHEV lost significant ground to the Chevrolet Volt, now in search for higher standings. 

Looking outside the Top 10, there were a number of models pulling out brilliant performances last month, the BYD e5  recorded 1.961 units, a personal best, that allowed it to be #9, while the Zotye Cloud EV did even better, registering 2.116 units and rising to #8.

But this August headlining performance belonged to the Tesla Model X, that delivered 2.307 units, its best month to date, allowing it to climb to #7 in the Monthly ranking and #12 YTD, with 10.222 units. With less than 2.000 units separating it from the Top 10, it is possible likely that we will see two Tesla's in the September ranking...

PlWORLDAug. YTD%'15Pl
1Nissan Leaf3.04434.59682
2Tesla Model S4.71529.83571
3BYD Tang2.50224.66868
4
5
6
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Chevrolet Volt
BMW i3
1.218
2.509
2.848
17.602
16.429
15.288
4
4
3
3
9
5
7BYD Qin3.10615.26634
8Renault Zoe87013.98737
9BAIC E-Series EV1.46512.798311
10SAIC Roewe e5501.44612.222315

TOTAL 63.417
438.066



Manufacturers -  BYD and Tesla, disruptive forces

BYD continues to be the Master In Command, in August it delivered another impressive result, with 10.691 units, while Tesla secured the Second Place, with more than 7.000 deliveries. 

These two brands are pointed as the disruptive manufacturers of the EV market and September seems to confirm that, with all pointing to record-breaking performances (12k?) by both brands.

BMW is ambitiously hunting a weakened Nissan in the race for the last place of the podium, while Mitsubishi is losing positions every passing month, it is now #7, far from the Third spot won last year, having been surpassed by BAIC, that has been recording strong results and is now threatening the #5 Volkswagen. 

The Beijing Chinese manufacturer is something of a Dark Horse, we don't hear a lot about it, but the truth is that it is the manufacturer that made the most progress regarding last year, climbing six positions, and is one of three brands that have already beaten last year result in 2016 (17k last year vs 22k now), with the others being BYD (62k vs 64k) and BMW (33k vs 34k).

With Chevrolet finally selling at decent levels, the American car maker is now biting Renault's Eighth Place, so we might see a change here soon. 

Looking below the #10 Ford, we see SAIC Roewe, #11, edging just a little but closer, with 788 units separating it from Ford, this is another race to follow closely.

PlWORLDAug.YTD%'15Pl
1BYD10.69163.925151
2Tesla 7.02240.16392
3Nissan3.34637.02284
4BMW4.80133.52286
5
6
7
Volkswagen
BAIC
Mitsubishi
2.843
4.066
1.545
22.647
22.582
20.667
5
5
5
5
12
3
8Renault1.46118.83748
9Chevrolet2.80618.554411
10Ford2.24215.595410





Thursday, September 29, 2016

Europe August 2016

 Image result for BMW i3 in the beach


BMW i3 surges to #1 thanks to arrival of 33 kWh version


The European EV market had more than 13.000 registrations last month, up 19% over August 2015, with the market is set to surpass the 200.000 units by year end. In a relatively stable market, one model stole the show.

Looking at the Monthly Ranking:

Image result for white i3
#1 BMW i3 – Thanks to the massive arrival of the 33 kWh units, the BMW i3 had the anticipated sales surge, jumping directly to Number One in August, with 1.317 units, its best score of the year, while also for the first time in 2016, the BEV version outsold the Rex brethren, meaning that with the extended electric range, buyers feel more safe to go all into the EV game with the BEV version, without needing the safe net of the Range Extender. The largest markets to absorb the extended range Bimmers were Norway (293 units, all BEV) and Germany (280 deliveries, 147 of them BEV).

 Image result for white 2016 Outlander PHEV
#2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – The Japanese SUV dropped to Second in August, with 1.028 units, but actually Mitsubishi had some good news, as the Outlander PHEV deliveries went up 6% YoY, ending a five month trend of slowing sales. Although dropping in the all-important UK market, Norway and Germany have done the heavy lifting this month, pulling it into the black. And the Japanese brand really needs positive news...

Image result for white Passat GTE 
#3 VW Passat GTE – Besides the usual Sweden and Norway, big time Passat GTE lovers, Volkswagen’s midsize offering  also impressed in the Netherlands, with 119 units, its best result of the year there, allowing it to reach the Third Position, with 916 units. With the right mix of electric range, space, power and a reasonable price, the Passat GTE was destined for success as company car across Europe.

Image result for white Nissan Leaf 
#4 Nissan Leaf – Sales of the Japanese hatch were down 15% last month, to 869 units, with registrations dropping across the continent. In normal circumstances, Nissan would be worried and would try to pull some tricks to turn things around, but this time, the Japanese brand is just keeping production at minimal levels to avoid big unsold stocks, waiting for the big EV Push to be made by the Alliance at the upcoming Paris Auto Show.

 Image result for white Renault Zoe
#5 Renault Zoe – In what is usually a slow month for the French hatch, August turned out to be a not so bad sales month, with registrations up 47% YoY to 857 units and for that it had to thank the German market, that with 256 units, compensated the seasonal slowdown of the French market. Actually, Renault, the owner of the current EV Yellow Jersey in Europe, is probably not that much concerned with the current sales trend of its hatch, as it is preparing itself for the Paris Auto Show big product showdown, where the Zoe is expected to win some interesting new features… 



Image result for tesla model x
Joining the Top 20 soon

  
YTD Ranking

Looking at the YTD ranking, there weren’t significant changes at the top, with the Top 4 positions with no real chances of being contested in the short term.

But the race for #5 should be interesting, now that the rejuvenated BMW i3 is delivering their 33kWh units, the VW Golf GTE better step up the game or else in will have to say Auf Wiedersehen to the Fifth Place.

In the midst of the Summertime Chill season, besides the BMW i3, two other models had excelled in August, the Mercedes B250e had 466 units registered, its best performance ever, while the newly arrived Tesla Model X had its first significant deliveries month in Europe, with 307 units, already pulling it to #15 in the August ranking and #2 in the Luxury SUV class, only behind the Volvo XC90 PHEV, with 333 units.

(Un)Coincidentally, several of the Model X direct competitors had lower than average scores, like the BMW X5 PHEV (223 units, worst result in a year), Mercedes GLE500e (77 units, worst result of 2016), or the Porsche Cayenne Plug-In (154 units, lowest result since December 2014). Do I see a trend here?...

Considering that September is the last month of the Quarter and Tesla usually delivers some Ludicrous performances by that time, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Model X sneaked into the next month Top 5.

“What about two Tesla in September’s Top 5?” – While possible, I don’t believe it will be probable, with Tesla firing on all cylinders electrons to have as much units delivered as possible, I think they will make North America a priority for the MS (It’s simpler to deliver there) and won’t have the manufacturing / logistic ability to deliver so many MS units on this side of the Pond. Go on Tesla, prove me wrong!

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the trophy bearer, Volkswagen (16%), has been successful in fending off its direct competitors, but now it has a new and ambitious runner-up to take in account, as BMW (15%, up 2%) is profiting from a strong (And extensive) line-up to climb in the ranking, this time to Second Place, while dropping Renault to Third, with 14% share.

While BMW is still far from the leadership, 1.870 units behind, to be more precise, the booming sales (i3 33 kWh deliveries, 740e arrival…) of the Bavarian manufacturer means that it won’t be all that surprising to see BMW as Europe’s best-selling EV brand in 2016, by December 31st.

Pl
Europe
Aug.
2016
%
'15Pl
1
Renault Zoe
857
13.864
11
2
2
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
1.028
12.803
10
1
3
Nissan Leaf
869
11.835
9
5
4
Tesla Model S
850
8.202
7
4
5
6
7
Volkswagen Golf GTE
BMW i3
Volkswagen Passat GTE
787
1.317
916
7.524
6.916
6.358
6
5
5
3
6
12
8
Mercedes C350e
662
6.022
5
11
9
Volvo XC90 T8
332
5.884
5
18
10
Volkswagen e-Golf
538
4.920
4
4
11
12
BMW 330e
Audi A3 e-Tron
501
268
4.432
4.157
4
3
37
7
13
14
BMW X5 40e
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
201
449
3.140
2.968
3
2
22
32
15
Renault Kangoo ZE
298
2.588
2
13
16
Kia Soul EV
385
2.488
2
10
17
Mercedes B250e
466
2.292
2
17
18
19
20
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
231
252
190
2.129
1.995
1.845
2
2
1
9
15
14
TOTAL
13.274
125.682


Japan August 2016

Image result for Mitsubishi plug-in line up
Mitsubishi needs fresh models fast

Mitsubishi Meltdown


The Japanese EV was down 50% YoY in August, with some 1.100 units, placing the YTD numbers at some 17.000 units, approximately the same amount as in in the same period last year, with the EV Share steady at 0.5%. Although the overall numbers follow last year volumes, the way the two local heavy-weights are behaving, couldn't be much different.

The 30kWh-rejuvenated Nissan Leaf continues to be the main driving force, with 11.120 units registered until August, up 64% YoY, with the yearly all-time record for a single model in Japan (14.177 units, scored by the same Leaf, in 2014), expected to be broken this December, an extraordinary feat for a car that will have six years by then...

On the other hand, emissions scandal is hurting badly Mitsubishi, the Outlander PHEV YTD sales are down 28% to little over 4.000 units, while the 151 units sold last month were its worst performance in over three years, to worsen things even further, the Miev family is also in the doldrums, with August presenting symbolic numbers and drops between 70 to 95% YoY.

As consequence of this, Nissan is miles ahead in the manufacturers ranking, with 66% share, 41% ahead of Mitsubishi (26%), while BMW is Third, with 5% share. Toyota may pull a rabbit out of the hat (Prius Prime) in the last months of the year, but for now it seems the German automaker will be the first foreign brand to reach the Podium in Japan.

Speaking of Toyota, there were 63 Mirai registrations...
Pl
Japan
August
  2016
     %Pl '15
1Nissan Leaf79111.12064
2
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1514.16224
1
3BMW i3 e)1008005
4
4Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia e)504002
7
5Tesla Model S e)252001
6
6
7
8
9
10
11
11
Toyota Prius Plug-In e)
Mitsubishi Minicab Miev
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Mit. Minicab Miev Truck
BMW i8 e)
BMW 330e e)
Audi A3 e-Tron e)
5
3
7
3
5
5
5
183
166
128
52
40
5
5
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
3
8
5
9
10
N/A
N/A

TOTAL1.15017.261100

e) Estimate






Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Upcoming BEV updates

Image result for opel ampera e
2017 Opel Ampera-e

Discussing the upcoming Paris Auto Show with one of EVS readers, we have reached a timeline for a number of upcoming BEV models:


Chevrolet Bolt / Opel Ampera-e - November symbolic arrival, deliveries ramp-up in December;

Opel version arrival in April in selected markets, dissemination across the continent in the 3/4 following months; 


Faraday Future SUV - Somewhere in the second half of 2017, we will see the first production units being delivered;


2018 Hyundai Ioniq BEV (40 kWh?) - Late 2017;



2017 Kia Soul EV (36 kWh) - January 2017;



2017 Nissan Leaf (40kWh battery) - November 2016 arrival, full scale deliveries in December;


Nissan Leaf II - 3Q 2017;



Renault Zoe 40 kWh - November arrival, full scale deliveries in December;


Renault Twingo EV & Nissan B compact EV - Q1 2017?


2017 Smart ED - December 2016?



Tesla Model 3 - First symbolic deliveries in September 2017, rest of the year to fine tune production, with moderate production quantities and high level of QC. USA-destined units. 

Beginning of 2018, significant ramp up, mainly targeted to North America. 

Second half of 2018, full scale production for all markets.


2017 Volkswagen BEV's - Larger batteries to arrive in January 2017.



Is anyone missing?